Position-U · QB U NFL-outcome methodology
Quarterback Position-U Rankings
QB U ranks programs by the quality, quantity, and consistency of the NFL quarterbacks they produce. Pro Bowl quarterbacks receive the greatest weight among currently governed outcomes, followed by established and meaningful NFL starters, draft selections, and NFL roster outcomes. The model also considers hit rate, recruiting-class consistency, transfer development, and performance beyond recruiting expectations.
2004–2016 recruiting classes · 36 ranked programs · QB U NFL-outcome pilot
What the score measures
QB U uses a quarterback-specific NFL-outcome methodology (rerank categories, NFL earnings, and recruiting stars). School credit uses frozen career-credit (60/35/5), not a 65/35 split. Walk-ons who were not recruited into the cohort are excluded. Earnings are a within-tier support signal and do not upgrade a quarterback’s outcome tier.
NFL Quality · 35%
Capped player outcome points from the highest rerank tier, plus elite and established-starter rates.
NFL Volume · 25%
Diminishing-return count of distinct NFL quarterbacks by highest tier reached.
Hit Rate · 20%
Share of eligible QBs reaching rostered, established-starter, and drafted outcomes.
Consistency + Development · 20%
Class/era repeatability (15%) and development beyond recruiting expectation (5%).
Rankings
Outcome columns read left to right: Pro Bowl, NFL rostered, Drafted, Meaningful starters, then Established starters.
- 1
Score 97.7 · Pro Bowl 1.5 · NFL rostered 3.9 · Drafted 3.9 · Meaningful 3.5 · Est. 2.5
Hit rate 41.9% · Transfer · Medium
- 2
Score 81.5 · Pro Bowl 1 · NFL rostered 4 · Drafted 4 · Meaningful 3 · Est. 2
Hit rate 32% · Transfer · Medium
- 3
Score 78.3 · Pro Bowl 1.1 · NFL rostered 4.4 · Drafted 3.4 · Meaningful 2.4 · Est. 1.1
Hit rate 34.9% · Transfer · High
- 4
Score 70.2 · Pro Bowl 2 · NFL rostered 3.0 · Drafted 3 · Meaningful 2 · Est. 2
Hit rate 20.3% · Transfer · High
- 5
Score 69.6 · Pro Bowl 1 · NFL rostered 3 · Drafted 3 · Meaningful 3 · Est. 2
Hit rate 19.2% · Transfer · High
- 6
Score 69.5 · Pro Bowl 1.1 · NFL rostered 3.0 · Drafted 3.0 · Meaningful 2.0 · Est. 2.0
Hit rate 27.5% · Transfer · Medium
- 7
Score 63.6 · Pro Bowl 0.1 · NFL rostered 3.3 · Drafted 2.9 · Meaningful 1.6 · Est. 0.3
Hit rate 36.7% · Transfer · Medium
- 8
Score 63.5 · Pro Bowl 0.4 · NFL rostered 4.4 · Drafted 2.4 · Meaningful 1.4 · Est. 1.4
Hit rate 33.9% · Transfer · Medium
- 9
Score 62.2 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 2.5 · Drafted 2.5 · Meaningful 1.8 · Est. 1.8
Hit rate 30.8% · Transfer · Medium
- 10
Score 61.4 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 5.2 · Drafted 3 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 1
Hit rate 36.8% · Transfer · High
- 11
Score 59.2 · Pro Bowl 1 · NFL rostered 2.6 · Drafted 2 · Meaningful 2 · Est. 2
Hit rate 17.5% · Transfer · Medium
- 12
Score 56.5 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 2.9 · Drafted 2.6 · Meaningful 2 · Est. 1
Hit rate 26.8% · Transfer · Medium
- 13
Score 55.5 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 3 · Drafted 2 · Meaningful 2 · Est. 2
Hit rate 18.1% · Transfer · High
- 14
Score 54.8 · Pro Bowl 1 · NFL rostered 3 · Drafted 2 · Meaningful 2 · Est. 1
Hit rate 21.4% · Transfer · High
- 15
Score 54.5 · Pro Bowl 1 · NFL rostered 2.4 · Drafted 2.4 · Meaningful 1.1 · Est. 1
Hit rate 22.4% · Transfer · Medium
- 16
Score 53.6 · Pro Bowl 0.3 · NFL rostered 2.3 · Drafted 2.3 · Meaningful 1.3 · Est. 1.3
Hit rate 23.9% · Transfer · Medium
- 17
Score 52.8 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 3.4 · Drafted 3.4 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 0
Hit rate 31.9% · Transfer · Medium
- 18
Score 52.5 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 3 · Drafted 3 · Meaningful 2 · Est. 0
Hit rate 29.7% · Transfer · Medium
- 19
Score 51.3 · Pro Bowl 1 · NFL rostered 2.8 · Drafted 2.8 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 1
Hit rate 15.4% · Transfer · High
- 20
Score 51.1 · Pro Bowl 1 · NFL rostered 3.0 · Drafted 2.0 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 1
Hit rate 18.5% · Transfer · High
- 21
Score 51.0 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 2.6 · Drafted 2.6 · Meaningful 2 · Est. 1
Hit rate 16.7% · Transfer · High
- 22
Score 50.7 · Pro Bowl 0.8 · NFL rostered 2.4 · Drafted 2.4 · Meaningful 1.7 · Est. 0.8
Hit rate 17.1% · Transfer · Medium
- 23
Score 50.1 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 3 · Drafted 2 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 1
Hit rate 27.3% · Transfer · Medium
- 24
Score 47.8 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 3 · Drafted 3 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 1
Hit rate 17.2% · Transfer · High
- 25
Score 47.3 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 2 · Drafted 2 · Meaningful 2 · Est. 1
Hit rate 15.6% · Transfer · High
- 26
Score 47.2 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 3 · Drafted 3 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 0
Hit rate 25.6% · Transfer · Medium
- 27
Score 46.0 · Pro Bowl 1 · NFL rostered 2 · Drafted 2 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 1
Hit rate 15.2% · Transfer · Medium
- 28
Score 45.6 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 2 · Drafted 2 · Meaningful 2 · Est. 1
Hit rate 15% · Transfer · Medium
- 29
Score 45.4 · Pro Bowl 1 · NFL rostered 2 · Drafted 2 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 1
Hit rate 14.7% · Transfer · High
- 30
Score 44.9 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 2.4 · Drafted 2.4 · Meaningful 2 · Est. 0
Hit rate 18.1% · Transfer · High
- 31
Score 43.9 · Pro Bowl 0.9 · NFL rostered 1.9 · Drafted 1.9 · Meaningful 0.9 · Est. 0.9
Hit rate 12.7% · Transfer · Medium
- 32
Score 43.0 · Pro Bowl 1 · NFL rostered 1.8 · Drafted 1.8 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 1
Hit rate 10.9% · Transfer · High
- 33
Score 41.4 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 3.4 · Drafted 2 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 0
Hit rate 23.8% · Transfer · High
- 34
Score 41.2 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 1.6 · Drafted 1.6 · Meaningful 1.6 · Est. 1
Hit rate 11.5% · Transfer · Medium
- 35
Score 40.7 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 2 · Drafted 2 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 1
Hit rate 15.4% · Transfer · High
- 36
Score 39.6 · Pro Bowl 0 · NFL rostered 2 · Drafted 2 · Meaningful 1 · Est. 1
Hit rate 12.1% · Transfer · High
| Rank | Program | Score | Pro Bowl | NFL rostered | Drafted | Meaningful | Est. starters | Hit rate | Transfer sens. | Confidence | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97.7 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 41.9% | Medium | |||
| 2 | 81.5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 32% | Medium | |||
| 3 | 78.3 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 34.9% | High | |||
| 4 | 70.2 | 2 | 3.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20.3% | High | |||
| 5 | 69.6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 19.2% | High | |||
| 6 | 69.5 | 1.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 27.5% | Medium | |||
| 7 | 63.6 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 36.7% | Medium | |||
| 8 | 63.5 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 33.9% | Medium | |||
| 9 | 62.2 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 30.8% | Medium | |||
| 10 | 61.4 | 0 | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 36.8% | High | |||
| 11 | 59.2 | 1 | 2.6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17.5% | Medium | |||
| 12 | 56.5 | 0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2 | 1 | 26.8% | Medium | |||
| 13 | 55.5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18.1% | High | |||
| 14 | 54.8 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 21.4% | High | |||
| 15 | 54.5 | 1 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 1 | 22.4% | Medium | |||
| 16 | 53.6 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 23.9% | Medium | |||
| 17 | 52.8 | 0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1 | 0 | 31.9% | Medium | |||
| 18 | 52.5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 29.7% | Medium | |||
| 19 | 51.3 | 1 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1 | 1 | 15.4% | High | |||
| 20 | 51.1 | 1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 18.5% | High | |||
| 21 | 51.0 | 0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2 | 1 | 16.7% | High | |||
| 22 | 50.7 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 17.1% | Medium | |||
| 23 | 50.1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 27.3% | Medium | |||
| 24 | 47.8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17.2% | High | |||
| 25 | 47.3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15.6% | High | |||
| 26 | 47.2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 25.6% | Medium | |||
| 27 | 46.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15.2% | Medium | |||
| 28 | 45.6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15% | Medium | |||
| 29 | 45.4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14.7% | High | |||
| 30 | 44.9 | 0 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2 | 0 | 18.1% | High | |||
| 31 | 43.9 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 12.7% | Medium | |||
| 32 | 43.0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1 | 1 | 10.9% | High | |||
| 33 | 41.4 | 0 | 3.4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23.8% | High | |||
| 34 | 41.2 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1 | 11.5% | Medium | |||
| 35 | 40.7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15.4% | High | |||
| 36 | 39.6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12.1% | High |
Methodology
- QB U NFL-outcome ladder is unchanged (qb_u_nfl_outcome_v0_rerank_earnings_stars).
- School credit uses frozen position_u_v2_career_credit_60_35_5 instead of 65/35.
- Baker Mayfield is excluded as a non-recruited walk-on and is not scored.
- Cardale Jones 2011 is an excluded duplicate Firebase class listing; only the 2012 Ohio State record is in the eligible cohort.
- Preferred model uses frozen career-credit (60% college contribution / up to 35% NFL launch / 5% origin recruiting) instead of a 65/35 original/final split. Walk-ons who were not recruited into the cohort, including Baker Mayfield, are excluded.
- Snapshot
QB__qb_u_nfl_outcome_v0_rerank_earnings_stars__career_credit_v2__published-2004-2016__e81dbc66c1ea· methodologyqb_u_nfl_outcome_v0_rerank_earnings_stars
Related exploration
- Wide Receiver Position-U rankings
- Running Back Position-U rankings
- Fullback Position-U rankings
- Tight End Position-U rankings
- Offensive Tackle Position-U rankings
- Interior Offensive Line Position-U rankings
- Defensive End Position-U rankings
- Defensive Tackle Position-U rankings
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- Position-U hub
- Program directory