Hits & Misses
Hit: Luke Stocker (TE) — Originally ranked 374. Outcome: NFL Starter. Despite a relatively low ranking, Stocker significantly outperformed expectations, reaching the level of an NFL Starter during his time with Tennessee.
Hit: Daniel Lincoln (K) — Originally unranked. Outcome: All Conference. As an unranked recruit, Lincoln became an All Conference kicker, surpassing all initial expectations.
Miss: Lee Smith (TE) — Originally ranked 267. Outcome: Bust. Despite being a highly ranked recruit, Smith greatly underperformed, ending his career as a Bust.
Miss: Chase Nelson (EDGE) — Originally ranked 303. Outcome: Bust. Nelson, a top 303 recruit, failed to meet expectations, ultimately being labeled a Bust.
Development Story
Tennessee's 2006 recruiting class demonstrated a mixed bag in terms of development outcomes. Despite having an original class rank of 21, the class rerank dropped significantly to 87, indicating that the overall performance of these recruits did not meet initial expectations. Interestingly, the class had a high blue chip percentage of 43%, suggesting that the class was originally perceived to have a substantial number of high-potential recruits.
However, the outcomes tell a different story. Some recruits like Luke Stocker and Daniel Lincoln far exceeded initial expectations, achieving NFL Starter and All Conference status respectively. On the other hand, many recruits, especially those who were highly ranked such as Lee Smith and Chase Nelson, underperformed greatly, being labeled as Busts. This pattern of significant variance in outcomes suggests inconsistency in the development program at Tennessee during this period.
Outcome Summary
Overall, the 2006 recruiting class for Tennessee underperformed relative to initial expectations. The significant drop in the S2S rerank from 21 to 87 underscores this fact. While there were promising hits like Stocker and Lincoln, the performance of the class as a whole was disappointing, resulting in the low rerank. The key factor for the rerank drop was the underperformance of several high-ranked recruits who ended up as Busts.
In conclusion, the 2006 Tennessee recruiting class serves as a stark reminder that initial rankings and blue chip percentages do not guarantee successful outcomes.