San Diego State 2004 — Recruiting Outcomes

Hits & Misses

Hit: Lance Louis (IOL) — Originally ranked 275. Outcome: NFL Starter. Despite not making it to the NFL, Louis solidified himself as a key starter during his college tenure. Hit: Russell Allen (LB) — Originally ranked 595. Outcome: NFL Starter. Allen far exceeded his original ranking by becoming a reliable starter for the Aztecs. Miss: Andrew Schantz (LB) — Originally ranked 402. Outcome: Contributor. Schantz, despite his high ranking, never fully developed into a consistent starter. Miss: Patrick Gates (RB) — Originally ranked 598. Outcome: Bust. Gates, a promising recruit, was unable to make a significant impact on the field.

Development Story

The 2004 San Diego State recruiting class tells an interesting story about player development. With an initial ranking of 78th, the class was not expected to be particularly groundbreaking. However, the Aztecs managed to extract considerable value from this group. Their S2S rerank of 67 is a testament to the player development program's ability to elevate players beyond their initial expectations, particularly for Louis and Allen who became key starters. This class also underscores the unpredictability of recruiting. High-ranking recruits like Schantz and Gates underperformed relative to their initial rankings, reminding us that success at the next level is not simply a function of high school rankings. The development patterns of the 2004 Aztecs suggest a program that was able to identify and develop overlooked talent.

Outcome Summary

The 2004 San Diego State class can be seen as an overperformer. The class's initial ranking was lower than its S2S rerank, indicating that the players collectively performed better than expected. This improvement is reflected in the fact that a number of players, including some lower-ranked recruits, went on to have successful college careers. The S2S rerank moved up from the original ranking largely because of the development and performance of players like Lance Louis and Russell Allen. These players, who were not initially highly ranked, became key contributors and exceeded their initial expectations. The takeaway from this class is that solid player development can lead to success, even without a top-ranked recruiting class.